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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 138.940.0%3:59 PM EST

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To: Mohan Marette who wrote (61620)8/27/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Patrick E.McDaniel  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
To All, please explain at what point we should be concerned with overseas factors.

Here are my thoughts on this matter.

I'll break it down to regions.
1)Russia
2)Europe
3)Asia
4)Cental/South America
5)Americas

Russia: An economy that has been weak. Less than 1% of Dell sales. As the country will not completely shut down, Dell will still be selling computers although not as many as would have been possible.

Europe: Europe has a strong economy with little production coming from Russia. Direct Russian impact should be psychological only. This may impact growth plans and spending on computer systems if concerns force companies to cut back on upgrades. There exists no real data on computer sales an we won't get data for about 6 weeks.

Asia: Asian sales account for 6% of sales spread across many nations.
Economic concerns are slowing potential growth but not causing real declines in sales. Japan is in trouble but probably is on the order of 1% of Dell sales and will not go to zero.The China facility is coming on line at this time. Flooding in China is disrupting some economic activity although to what degree is not clear. Other asian countries are following the lead of Japan and China.

Central/South America: South American countries have recently suffered due to currency concerns. Once again, this is based on psychological perception of possible events and not internal factors disrupting their economies. Dell sales here are very low based on data from IDC/Dataquest so only impacts future growth for Dell.

Americas: Again, no direct reduction on Dell sales. Concerns are based on potential reduction of exports of foreign countries thus causing a slowdown here. No data at this point to support that concern.

Dell stock performs based on company performance and stock market performance. I believe the Dell company will continue to perform beyond expectations. Dell will continue to gain market share and expand into new markets.

The question then becomes: Even if Dell delivers exceptional earnings and sales how will the market treat the stock should overseas markets continue to decline and drag down US markets?

I am still working on that one!

Unless Dell performs like no other stock has during a decline, it should come down with the rest of the market. It may not come down as hard but should follow the market trends.

Is it possible for Dell stock to buck the market and be considered a safe haven based on exceptional growth and little exposure to afflicted markets? YES, however I don't know how likely this is.

Many fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash looking for earnings and growth with limited exposure. They will experience declines on other stocks and need some high flyers, BADLY!!!!!!

Any thoughts on this?

Pat
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