Date: 01/14 17:56 EST
DDR SDRAM Gains Momentum
Jan 14, 2000 (Tech Web - CMP via COMTEX) -- Double-data-rate (DDR)
SDRAM could account for half of the memory market's unit shipments
after 2002, a majority share that once was the sole claim of Direct
Rambus DRAM, according to chip vendors and analysts.
Driving the growth of the high-speed interface are expectations that
DDR SDRAM will launch in servers and desktop and notebook PCs late this
year and ramp up quickly in 2001. The technology is already picking up
speed as dedicated memory for graphics cards and also should penetrate
the emerging Internet-enabled handheld device market, according to
observers.
For its part, rival Direct RDRAM is expected to make its presence felt
first in the high-performance workstation market and in networking and
telecommunications equipment, where the architecture is seen as a good
fit with the industry's packet-switching systems, according to Bob
Merritt, an analyst at Semico Research, Redwood City, Calif.
Of all the companies promoting DDR, Hitachi has arrived at the most
aggressive ramp forecast, estimating the interface will account for
half the DRAM market within two years. Jeff Mailloux, DRAM marketing
manager at Micron Technology, Boise, Idaho, said it might take a little
longer for DDR to become the majority DRAM market shareholder, although
he said "it could happen sooner if desktop PCs adopt DDR at a faster
pace."
Sherry Garber, an analyst at Semico Research in Phoenix, predicted DDR
will take half the DRAM market, but not until 2004. She said the
technology will occupy 9 percent of the market this year, compared with
2.6 percent for Direct RDRAM, jumping next year to 20 percent, while
Direct Rambus holds at 2.3 percent.
Samsung Semiconductor, which expects to ship 90 percent of all Direct
RDRAM bits this quarter, differs, predicting it is the packet-data
Rambus memory technology that will account for 50 percent of the market
by 2003.
"At the end of the day, the investment made by us the suppliers, by
Intel, and by Rambus in the technology cannot be overlooked," said Bob
Eminian, vice president of marketing and corporate communications at
Samsung, San Jose, Calif.
DDR will enter the market this year in mainstream desktop PCs through
the introduction of three enabling chip sets from Via Technologies,
Advanced Micro Devices, and Intel, industry sources said. San
Jose-based Reliance Computer will launch a DDR-equipped chip set
midyear for servers, and Intel has said it will have a DDR-enabled
server chip set in the first half of 2001.
AMD is set to unveil a DDR memory road map for its Athlon
microprocessors at the Platform 2000 conference later this month in San
Jose. Both AMD and Taiwan's Via will build DDR chip sets for the Athlon
and are slated to bring the higher-speed memory to market ahead of
Intel's own desktop DDR introduction. Chip makers also expect Apple to
launch a line of desktop systems this year that will use DDR SDRAM as
main memory.
Bob Fusco, DRAM product marketing manager at Hitachi Semiconductor
(America), San Jose, said DDR chip sets for notebook PCs will follow
quickly after the debut of desktop versions, as is the usual industry
practice.
"DDR will make big inroads in portable products because it operates at
2.5 volts, a big power saver over the 3.5-volt single-data-rate
SDRAMs," Fusco said. "DDR prices will also essentially be on a par with
PC100 and PC133 SDRAMs, because manufacturing costs are virtually the
same."
Value-line PCs are also expected to adopt DDR quickly to gain the
higher speed memory at no premium.
"It's a no-brainer," said Semico's Merritt. DDR does require some
design changes to the motherboard and BIOS, which could slow the
transition of some low-end PCs. But Merritt said the board
modifications shouldn't add more than $5 to $10 to PC manufacturing
costs, which he said he thinks OEMs would accept in order to boost
their performance.
Via is expected to start sampling its own DDR chip set for value-end
PCs in the second quarter this year. Sources said one version will
support Intel Celeron-powered desktops and another will be used with
the Joshua, Via's own upcoming low-end processor which is based on
technology it acquired through its purchase of Cyrix and Centaur
Technology.
Via has licensed the DDR-enabled Samurai chip set design from Micron
and may initially sell Micron-manufactured devices under its own label.
Via's Samurai chip sets are aimed at higher performance PCs than its
internally developed devices.
Copyright (C) 2000 CMP Media Inc.
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