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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (6177)12/10/2001 10:42:20 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7  Read Replies (1) of 6873
 
Reagarding HAL: I will not reiterate other facts mentioned in my other posts. Anyone who wishes to research my due dilligence on HAL just click on my name, and follow how I feel about most recent move.

FACTS: 1/2 companies on DOW have ASBESTOS exposure

: Exposure to asbestos liability is either Direct of Indirect, If you were a manufacturer in the past as FMO,FWC, CCK, grace, armstrong you have NO DEFENSE to any claims!! This has put many MANUFACTURERS in chapter 11 including USG

The nondirect exposure is from when a current company buys another and has a division that has exposure to asbestos. This subsection is broken into 2 subsectionc, those that has ASBESTOS at the facility, or work place.

And those that purchased a company or divsion that MANUFACTURED asbestos.

Now HAL purchased Dresser industries that had 2 divisions with exposure to pipes covered w/ asbestos. At the time of the purchase of 7 billion, at least 1 billion was negotiated as liabilities and asbestos was their.

HAL being in the construction business, has had to deal w/ asbestos claims since 1975. These claims from my research at the time of the Dresser buy was about 160,000. At that time they were being settled for around 600-900 a piece.

So the RISK w/ the dresser buy was dealable! Based mostly on the fact they ( Dresser, and Harbinger) Never made asbestos just used it and only in a LIMITED degree!

In summer of 2001, the insurance company that was covering the Desser division claims stopped covering, and HAL filed suit for breach of contract. The insurance company based its decision on the fact HAL sold Dresser unit. But most recent case law that came dwn in May, still made HAL PARTIALLY liable for the claims...BUT NOT 100%

So now have HAL w/ a plan to settle claims as they have since 1975. Nomproblem since they have settled 194,000 claims for no more then 1.5 mil on appeal!

HAL gets held down in market place when it hangs in the 34-38 area w/ several analysts questioning a pricing a few loses in trials.

Oil then crashes w/ osx and HAL gets hit to the 22-24 area. It bounced to 28 on crudes bounce, and then setled in at 22 area.

Then ENE colapses, and then friday news of hal downgrade!

Bottom line is HAL IS AT THE bottom of the liability pol, if it has any!

USG and others were 100% liable, w/ causation as a non-issue, and no defense.

HAL is less then 30% liable if that, very difficult causation.
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