Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (61825)	12/17/2000 12:02:43 AM
From: Atin	Read Replies (1) of 63513

I'm thinking somewhere in the middle -- I don't think we will see the outright vertical leaps we got used to seeing in our favorite stocks. Mostly because the earnings aren't really accelerating like they used to. Earnings were accelerating due to the many "discontinuous innovations" that hit the market at about the same time. These innovations (like supply chain management, communication, networking etc) created serious production and distribution efficiencies that helped the bottom lines of companies very quickly. These efficiencies are getting harder to generate now as the low hanging fruit has already been picked. Lowered interest rates and more money supply out there isn't really going to help anything except speculative ventures (remember the dot bombs? <g>), earnings are the real fuel under stocks and until we see earnings growth acceleration again, we're not going to see the same boom we just saw. I think what we just saw was a particularly nice combination of speculative abandon due to low interest rates and high earnings growth acceleration. I think we're in for a period of flat to down markets with high volatility. Good for short term traders, bad for buy and hold. But then I always thought that buy and holders were doing some sort of penance anyway -- maybe feeling pain is part of the goal. <g>

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