<<I couldnt disagree more about economy picking up
here are some numbers to consider
in Oct-Nov 2001, disposable income fell by $23B
in same two months, consumer credit exploded by $31B
bonuses in Q1 2002 are expected to drop by $40B
January unemployment rose to 5.8%
with economists aiming at 6.1% unemploymt top,
seems like a rosey view compared to other recessions
I think when all said and done, jobless rate will be close to 7%
home mortgage debt jumped $1200B since 1999
this effect sustained the economy thru 2001
gonna be hard to continue this
esp if mortgage rates rise slightly
FHA says 11.4% of loans are over 30 days late
FannyMae is rumored to be in huge trouble, possible bankrupty
possibly some shifty accounting
First USA says bad credit cards soared by 43% in one year,
with $3.6B just their damage in losses
even college kids now have $3000 debts
then Q4 was a combination of Patriotism and Detroit giveaways
patriotic purchases kept the retail registers ringing
while Detroit robbed Q1 and Q2 for profitless sales
now Detroit will have to compete against cheaper Japanese cars
my own parents bought a GM Buick they didnt need
they are all set for 5-6 years
expect enormous additional layoffs in Detroit
in earlier recessions, new home sales dropped an avg 23%
hasnt happened yet here and now, even rising in crazy fashion
in earlier recessions, new car sales fell by 15%
hasnt happened yet here and now, even rising in blowoff
since 1994, corporate debt has risen 85%
compared to GDP growth of 42%
combine high debt with excess capacity, terrible combo
office vacancies rose to 12.3% in Q3, a huge number
US mfg capacity utilization stands now at 74.4%
and it continues to drop
Jeff Immelt of GenlElectric sees no recovery in 2002
Bill Gates of Microshit sees no recovery in 2002
and dont expect foreigners to come to our rescue
the USdollar is as high as ever in history
US products are not being exported much at all now
excesses and debt must be reduced before a recovery
Wall Street is selling the theme, and you are buying it
to their profit and your loss
expect Q4 GDP numbers to be revised down into negative territory
expect Americans to retrench and improve household balance sheets before any recovery
even economists are now stating their expectation of a decline in Q1 consumer spending
that will be the first in years
we are tapped out, and gorged on more debt in patriotic fashion in Q4 in response to attack
sad, but the recession is likely to last all year long
and into early 2003
I doubt S&P, Dow, or Naz have enough patience to tread water
WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE RECESSION !!!
now watch the trend into gold, discarding all currencies,
and shunning paper assets
/ jim
>>
Then please just sell everything you havent lost in the market or gambling yet and buy gold...move to costa rica and chill out and enjoy your life......oh, and dont get an internet connection either....... |
