I agree David, that COMS has no real use for MOT modem division. (At least I hope they don't.) I have thought that ASND would be a perverse possibility, as I think the management there might be able to use another couple of quarters worth of excuses for not making earnings. Strategically, it would give them both sides of the connection all rightie, but I don't see the same value to them for this strategy as for USRX, when they were trying to steal a march on the ROK consortium. That made a compelling strategy then for grabbing share, as born out by their experience. These are increasingly lower margin products now. ASND culture is higher margin. Not a good cultural fit.
Without the MOT name, it would seem that the other modem makers (any of them for that matter) would be buying just manufacturing and some circuit board designs that would just be of incremental value.
ROK would seem a possibility for them, if they are looking to vertically address the modem market, though I would think this would poison them a bit with other modem manufacturers buying their chip sets. I think the same applies to LU. Additionally I would think though that LU would want to acquire in the direction of more advanced technology, than in the lower end like MOT modems. I could wrong on this if MOT has some technology bundled here that is not apparent to me (a real possibility).
Overall, I think valuing MOT ongoing business is dicey. It seems to me that their manufacturing capacity is about their primary value. Their channel distribution rests a lot on their name brand which unfortunately includes the Motorola name. INTC is a possibility, though, that I think is also unlikely. As far as modems and INTC - been there done that. But if they want to make a splash in DSPs, then . . . who knows? TXN has shown the way to a profitable chip area that should only grow. But it seems to me cheaper to penetrate that market with lower prices or even greater innovation than to buy a modem maker. Otoh, as part of a BAY strategy, they would match up with COMS at more product points. If they bought BAY too they could be taking on COMS, ASND and soon even CSCO. Having modems here could be an advantage if it doesn't cost much. But I think that seems too ambitious even for INTC's deep pockets.
But at the right (read "low enough") price any of these guys could be a buyer, I guess. Including foreign manufacturers like Sony, or Phillips. I guess we have seen stranger things than any of these though, for even stranger reasons. |
