freeus, I hesitate to give my views on when to cut a loss. Sometimes I make the right decision and sometimes not. Time and again the following happens to me: I get an idea of a company whose stock is about to make a major move. Generally I get a hunch that WS is about to undergo a viewpoint shift for the better. I do a lot of research in a company, spending quite a bit of time analyzing all the different things that I analyze. During this time I decide how much to invest, and I make a buy or two (or three). Now usually the stock doesn't move right away after I invest. Sometimes it does. But the major move doesn't happen right away. So after much hand-wringing, agonizing, and self-chastisement for "thinking I know something the street doesn't", I grudgingly sell out, thinking "I'll probably regret this, but it's the rational thing to do".
That's a sign the stock is about to make a major move, when I give up. I battled NOKA for two months, establishing positions, averaging down, taking losses, averaging down some more, and finally was wore out, thinking I must be wrong. During this time the stock acted like a limp dishrag, with no spine whatsoever, moving mostly down, but with sporadic hope inspiring jabs up, only to go back down. I last sold on Sept 11, at $80. Immediately, (starting the very next day) the stock began a bold, determined, and forceful move up. The chart now has a decided 45 degree slant up, and the stock rests this weekend at $98. The crazy thing is, I lost quite a bit of money on that stock, but just gave up at the very turning point.
So, I'm not about to tell you to give up on something. You'll have to make that decision for yourself.
DK |
