Freep, I'm curious, do you have those other dates that line up on the 11-week cycle? I estimate around Dec. 7, 2001; Feb. 22, 2002; May 10, 2002; July 26, 2002; October 11, 2002; and Dec. 27, 2002.
Dec. 7 the low was COMP 2002. That was not the high or low of the move. That date is the odd one out. Feb.22 was a low, May 10 was a re-test of a low, July 26 was a re-test of the July 24 low, and Oct. 11 was a break-away.
It appears that the cycle has a minus 3-day variation in all instances except Dec. 2001, where it is plus 9-days until the low 84 points lower.
In all 4 out of 5 instances above (except Dec. 2001), the cycle turn coincided with a lower Bollinger Band hit at or a couple days prior to the 3-day variance window. The Dec. low came 4% lower, and it bounced off an important moving average.
We have not had a lower BB hit, and I'm inclined to believe we will before we have a low of substance here.
We may get it tomorrow, Tuesday, or later this week, and that would still be within the cycle window. |
