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joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com
Friday, October 22, 2004
Yet Another NM Prez Poll; This One Has Them Talking, Plus: Bush & Kerry Back to NM, And: Kate's Take: Spotlight On The Trib's Kate Nelson
There seems to be a Prez poll for everyone this year. Kerry supporters were buoyed by the ARG survey yesterday showing their man two points ahead and now Bush backers are exulting over the five point spread they have over Kerry in the latest Mason-Dixon survey taken this week. Bush--49%, Kerry--44% and 6% undecided. (MOE +-4%) But five points sounds like a lot so we checked in with a couple of our polling experts. They raised questions about the Mason-Dixon results.
"The survey was not done from a list of registered NM voters. They called at random and then asked whomever answered if they were a registered voter and what party and ethnic group they belonged to. Obviously, there is more room for error with that method." Our polling pundit also questioned Mason-Dixon for only weighting the poll with 10% independents. "It should be around 14%, like it was in ARG." he said.
Summing up all recent polls, in ARG it's a two point Kerry lead, the ABQ Journal has a three point Kerry advantage, the Mason-Dixon has a five point Bush lead and Gallup with a three point Bush edge.
STILL KERRY
The Mason-Dixon survey has not shaken my belief that Kerry is currently leading here and is poised for a win in the 10,000 vote area. The key is his eight point lead in Bernalillo County in the Sanderoff/Journal survey. That's why Heather Wilson has been in a much tighter Congressional race this time with Richard Romero. The Prez must improve his standing in NM's largest county. But the Bush campaign apparently believes ABQ is gone and they must boost turnout in conservative rural areas. They could do it, but through the decades that has not been the case.
HE'S BACK
It could be his last visit to NM before Election Day and John Kerry will spend it with Native Americans in ABQ Tuesday. If they show up in force on Election Day, minority voters can easily push Kerry over the top here. But it's still an if. The Senator will also visit Las Cruces Saturday. The campaign hopes the two visits finally nail down stubborn New Mexico as much bigger battleground prizes are at stake back East. Kerry has visited plenty and pumped enough money in here. Now, it's up to Big Bill to marshall the organization and deliver the win.
LATE BREAKING: BUSH BACK
From the Las Cruces Sun-News: President Bush will return to southern New Mexico with a stop Sunday in Alamogordo, Otero County Republican Party officials announced Thursday. The exact time and place of Bush’s visit were still being determined Thursday.Tickets to attend the Alamogordo rally will be distributed from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. today and Saturday at the Otero County Fairgrounds ticket booth on a first-come, first-served basis. More than 10,000 tickets have been printed for the event.
KATE'S TAKE
In the final days of Campaign 04' we go to the first string. Kate Nelson, managing editor of the ABQ Tribune, has been there and done that, having covered every major state race since the late 80's. I asked her to give "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" readers an exclusive insider take.
What will the Wilson-Romero race turn on? "Sadly, it will turn on the effectiveness of negative campaigning. The two have spent next to no time illuminating their own positions. Voters are pretty disgusted. The other element at work is Kerry coattails. If he beats Bush by at least 5 points, that could push Romero close. I've been deeply disappointed. They're fundamentally decent human beings, but you couldn't tell it by their campaigns.
On the NM Prez battle--"It's looking good for Kerry. I haven't seen what Bush/Cheney are doing to reach undecideds; their NM events are so staged,strictly firing up the base. Kerry's Old Town morning a few months back was a stroke of genius. I wish we'd seen more of that from both campaigns--candidates getting the feel of a community.
Is gender playing a role in the NM campaign? "You mean, like, is THIS finally the year of the woman? Ha! I don't think so. There isn't an unusually large group of women candidates. Maybe it's just the year of the attack ad. Oh, wait, that was every other election, too.
Upsets in the legislature, etc.? "Maybe a few, but honestly, I hate to call races. I mean, would you bother watching the Lobos if you knew ahead of time that they were going to lose?
You're right Kate. Suspense is what makes our beloved game of La Politica worth playing and there's no shortage of that in the down-to-the-wire campaign of 2004.
ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM
We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Posted by: Joe / 10/22/2004 12:02:25 AM |
