To all about Edelstone, nothing too much new here. It's the same bullish stuff he's been saying for about three to four months now. But now he says he feels just as confident if not more confident about Intel's prospects for the next twelve months and beyond compared to when he first went out on a limb and gave it a strong buy recommendation on April 15.
April 15 was when he went head to head with Kurlack, Kurlack downgraded and Edelstone upgraded. It was a gutsy move and Edelstone was way ahead of the pack and his foresight seems to be paying off in a big way - Intel is up 30% from its recent low of 65 5/8.
He basically said demand hit a trough in the May quarter and rebounded in June. Since he said the inventory correction is over, we can have an uptick in new orders from the OEM's because they're done just getting product out their doors. Anything they ship now has to be supplied with brand new purchases of microprocessors. He said demand has always been good, but it was being met with inventory - not new products. As all the Intel bulls know, Intel has an arsenal of new products that were recently introduced and more to come in the near future.
He said Intel will be the main beneficiary of this uptick in demand from the OEM's. He's not too bullish on AMD because he knows they don't have any great products long term beyond the K6. He's skeptical at best about them getting the K7 to market with any great impact on the industry. He also knows the adverse impact Mendocino will have on the K6 as well.
Edelstone is a very smart analyst, one of the best in the semi industry in my opinion. His main miscue was his bad call on AMD last year, but he acknowledged that mistake and moved on. I believe he will leave Kurlack in the dust and Edelstone will become the undisputed AX on Inetel...one of the most important companies shaping the world economy. That's a pretty powerful position to be in.
How do I know all this? Because I see him periodically for luncheons in NYC, the most recent being last Thurs.
I asked him about Rambus and he said they are in a very unique position because Intel is requiring that they become the next memory standard. How often do you have a company with that type of backup? Rambus will make a huge impact on the DRAM industry in the next few years. His advice was to buy the stock and put it under your pillow. It's too volatile to watch day to day (unless you love to trade). I can't believe he threw out a $150 to $200 price target on the stock at the luncheon. He expects this to occur within the next several years, not right away. His published target price is 80 bucks for 12 months down the road (I think it will be higher than 80).
He likes NMGC, his target is 30, because Toshiba is starting to order a lot of parts from them. Toshiba, of course, leads the world in shipments of notebooks and NeoMagic makes graphics chips for notebooks.
Anyway, I gotta go now.
Good luck to all Intel longs,
Doug |
