Pakistan: Seeking Payoffs From Washington
Jun 17, 2003
Summary
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is due to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush at Camp David in late June. The leaders reportedly will discuss a range of topics, including the sale of 28 F-16 fighter craft to Pakistan. Those aircraft -- along with debt forgiveness and trade status -- likely will be Washington's reward for Pakistan's support in the war against al Qaeda.
Analysis
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is due to meet U.S. President George W. Bush on June 24 at Camp David, where talks are expected to focus on trade, military sanctions, the war against al Qaeda and the delivery of several F-16 fighter aircraft, which Washington has withheld for more than a decade.
Musharraf has said he plans to seek more market access for Pakistani goods in the United States, further debt relief, an end to military sanctions and opportunities to buy U.S.-made military hardware. Islamabad would like for Washington to forgive its remaining $1.8 billion in debt; Washington previously wrote off $1 billion as a sign of appreciation for Pakistan's support for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and ongoing war against Islamist militant groups. And now, there is reason to believe that Islamabad will get most of what it seeks following Musharraf's visit.
The Bush administration has a wish list of its own where Pakistan is concerned -- including winning an agreement to cease cross-border operations in Afghanistan as well as into Indian-controlled Kashmir. Although there is some evidence that the Pakistani government has supported militant groups that cross the borders into Afghanistan and Kashmir, Washington wants Islamabad's cooperation in surveillance and shutting down the border crossings. To that end, officials may request some leeway in U.S. military operations: U.S. troops operating in Afghanistan have been unable to chase militant suspects across the border into Pakistan -- and although it would be unpopular to publicly grant them permission to do so, Musharraf could accede to U.S. wishes, provided operations were conducted quietly and perhaps clandestinely.
Such a move would be worth at least $1.8 billion for Pakistan, and Washington likely would have little trouble granting that request. For the United States, the money would be a safe investment: Not only is Washington highly unlikely to collect the debt, given the state of Pakistan's economy, but it also would stand to strengthen Musharraf politically -- particularly by helping to appease the middle class -- which indirectly would benefit the Bush administration. The two governments have developed strong ties, but as he attempts to make the transition toward a democracy, Musharraf now is threatened by a bloc of anti-U.S., Islamist parties.
Debt forgiveness will not be all that U.S. leaders agree to: According to a June 13 report by Defense and Foreign Affairs Daily, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Indian Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani earlier this month that Washington will resume F-16 sales to Islamabad. If so, this would do much to bolster Musharraf's prestige and expand his political room to accomplish several other objectives.
Islamabad initially ordered 28 F-16s -- which are capable of carrying nuclear devices -- in the late 1980s, but their delivery was blocked when Washington placed an embargo on arms sales to Pakistan in 1992. Although the United States eventually reimbursed Pakistan for its multimillion-dollar down payment, delivery of the F-16s since has become almost an issue of national pride.
It is unclear whether the United States would agree to sell Pakistan the original aircraft it purchased or newer models, as Islamabad would like. However, leaving Washington with an agreement for delivery of the F-16s would strengthen Musharraf's hand at home: Along with the gain in military capability, the president would show that he can negotiate successfully with the United States. Closing the F-16 deal would bolster his political support, allowing him to press forward on other key policies and goals -- including the hotly contested Legal Frame Work order.
It would be expected that news of F-16 sales to Pakistan would raise tensions in India, but there has been no apparent fallout or increase in hostile rhetoric from New Delhi thus far. The sting of the news may have been tempered by a recent Indian-Israeli deal that would give India a version of the AWACS aircraft, which can detect incoming jets and can be used to command aircraft over a large combat area. India also made a deal with Russia in early June to obtain the rights and equipment to build 140 SU-30mki Sukhol multi-role fighter craft. Although these craft are not quite as sophisticated as the F-16s Pakistan is seeking, their numbers would reduce the military advantage that Islamabad would gain with the U.S.-made jets. |
