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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.37

+0.9%

Dec 8 3:59 PM EST

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To: Elmer who wrote (6268)	5/6/2002 10:11:18 AM
From: Biomaven	of 52153

David, If they do, which of two categories of stocks do you believe will outperform the most? Those that have been comparatively strong in the face of this "biotech perfect storm" like SCIO, GILD or IGEN or those that have lost the most in percentage terms such as SEPR, PDLI and IMCL. The reason the latter three have lost a bigger percentage of their value is that they have all had bad news. Unless/until we start getting better fundamental news from them, I think the recent "winners" will likely continue to do somewhat better. Note that IGEN is a special play, and is going to trade on its own news, pretty much independent of the rest of the market. I do feel that SEPR has fallen too far though, and at some point its value will re-emerge. I will note that a strategy that has in the past worked very well in biotech is to buy stocks that have been crushed by a temporary setback. SCIO was one such example. That strategy is relatively independent of the overall market but may not work so well until the gloom and doom has dispelled. (MOGN might be an example of a temporarily crushed stock right now.) Peter

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