re: a plateau about halfway between bottom and peak
There is a plateau, in bookings, in both directions. You can see at least a brief horizontal stall, in both uptrends and downtrends.
Possible reason:
On downtrends, first capacity buys go away, then tech buys (for all semis except those with the prettiest balance sheets) go away. On uptrends, first tech buys come back (for the weaker semis), then capacity buys start, for everyone.
You're getting ahead of yourself, trying to guess the shape of the uptrend. We aren't in an uptrend yet. Although bookings are up, the last few months, they are still in the trough range. The important question now is: are we finished with the flat middle part of the U-shaped bottom? Are we now starting the upleg? The stocks say we are. But TXN kept capex unchanged, even as they raise guidance for sales. If we don't get semis increasing capex, then the graph of bookings stays in the flat middle part of the U. |
