More positive press today:
Monday February 21, 11:03 am Eastern Time
Fighter aircraft sales seen worth $136 bln to 2010
SINGAPORE, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Sales of fighter aircraft, depressed in the late 1990s, are set to grow again and reach $136 billion over the coming decade, an industry consultancy said on Tuesday.
``After several false starts, we expect the market to turn healthy again before the second half of our forecast period (2000 to 2009),' the Teal Group consultancy said in a statement. ``The annual value of fighter production will double by 2005.'
Teal expects 2,932 fighter and attack aircraft will be built between 2000 and 2009. Although that would be far fewer than the 4,445 built in the 1990s, the value of the average aircraft is rising. So this decade's production would be worth $136 billion in 2000 U.S. dollars, compared with the 1990s' $153 billion.
But the big loser in terms of market share would be Boeing (NYSE:BA - news), Teal said, estimating that the U.S. industry giant would produce 16 percent of all fighters built in 2009, compared with 40 percent in 1999.
Boeing in 1997 absorbed McDonnell Douglas Corp, which was for decades the West's leading fighter maker.
Boeing still builds two McDonnell fighters but production of one of them, the F-15 Eagle, is winding down, with few orders in hand. The other is the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.
The market share of Boeing would rise significantly if South Korea chose to buy the F-15, a contender in that country's current fighter competition, Teal said.
The West's other leading fighter makers are: Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT - news), which builds the F-16 and F-22; Dassault Aviation of France, which builds the Mirage 2000 and Rafale; and the Eurofighter consortium of European firms BAE Systems Plc (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BA.L), DaimlerChrysler Aerospace (NYSE:DCX - news), Finmeccanica and Casa which collectively build the Typhoon.
Russia's fighter firms are Sukhoi and MiG.
In Asia Teal saw opportunities especially in South Korea and Taiwan, which flies F-16s and Mirage 2000s.
"We expect a Taiwainese F-16 follow-on buy just as soon as it is politically feasible. A Mirage follow-on buy is possible, too.
``After these, Taiwan will buy something heavier or possibly an export-version F-22.'
Specifications of the Lockheed F-22, still in development, promise to make it by far the world's most effective fighter.
Extremely difficult to detect with radar, some analysts think it is so far ahead of the competition that the United States will not sell it to other countries, even in a special export version that is less effective. And the U.S. congress has not yet committed the F-22 to production.
Teal said the F-22 was a likely Taiwanese buy only if U.S.-Chinese relations deteriorated.
"Barring that, they'll probably get Rafales."
Malaysia operates MiG-29s and Teal said it might buy a few more. The consultancy's estimates included all non-Chinese combat aircraft with a take-off mass of more than nine tonnes. The figures do not, therefore, include light attack and training aircraft.
______________________________
Regards - Dale |
