.....And an important empirical question it is. Three of the most widely read American magazines have recently run stories on how the occupation is going, and the verdict is unanimous. "Americans are Losing the Victory" screams one. "How We Botched the Occupation" is on the cover of another. "Blueprint for a Mess" is the verdict of the third.
Actually, I've taken some liberties with two of those headlines, so let me start over. "Blueprint for a Mess" is indeed the cover article in this week's New York Times Magazine. But "Americans Are Losing the Victory" is from the January 7, 1945 issue of Life magazine, and the full headline is "Americans are Losing the Victory in Europe." The Saturday Evening Post on January 26, 1946 ran "How We Botched the German Occupation."
The Life article solemnly declared that, "Never has American prestige in Europe been lower" and that "we've lost the peace." It cites the prevalence of looting, the disorganization of the reconstruction authorities, the prevalence of disease, the continuing disorder. "We have swept away Hitlerism, but a great many Europeans feel that the cure has been worse than the disease," it intoned.
I mention this, not to make the (obviously fallacious) claim that it "proves" that Iraq will turn out as well as Europe did. But I mention it as a caution against impatience and as a reminder that setbacks and rough patches are to be expected. 19 British and 140 American troops have died since President Bush declared the end of "major combat operations" on May 1. The spate of terrorist attacks in Baghdad designed to coincide with the start of Ramadan are a threat not only to the lives of Iraqis, coalition troops and administrators, and international aid workers, but also to the stability of the country as a whole.
And yet. There have been three independent opinion polls conducted in Iraq since the end of the war, and all of them show that Iraqis are overwhelmingly optimistic and welcoming of the coalition presence. The first, conducted by the Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies in June, found that 65 percent of Baghdadis wanted U.S. troops to stay for now; only 17 percent wanted an immediate pull-out. A Zogby International poll in August talked to people in Basra, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Ramadi. 70% expected their personal and political lives to improve in the next five years; 60% favored freedom of religion; and 74% wanted to see serious punishment for former Ba'ath party officials. In the most recent poll, conducted by Gallup in September, 67% of Baghdadis think Iraq will be better off in 5 years than it was before the war, with only 8% thinking it will be worse off. 62% said that ousting Saddam was worth the ensuing hardships, and 60% had a favorable view of the Governing Council. When asked to choose between a number of options for a permanent government, a strong plurality, at 40%, chose parliamentary democracy, while only 10% chose Islamic theocracy......
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