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Biotech / Medical : AutoImmune-AIMM
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To: Thomas Stewart who wrote (62)3/30/1997 1:16:00 PM
From: organ   of 298
 
Thanks for the information, Thomas, re the timing of the clinical trial results announcement. The time is getting nigh! It looks like that little bull correction is over. That reversal at 12.5 is looking good for us shorts. Insiders are still not buying up any shares. I think that I'm going to start shorting again -- perhaps 1000 shares at 12.

So, it looks like AIMM is forecasting earnings of 800 million per annum if the drug is approved. Any idea how many shares are outstanding? I think if these trials go over well then the stock will boom considerably more than what would be expected, because creditability will be lent to the other drugs in the stable. However, if these trials fail, I think it is reasonable for the stock to fall to $4 or so before recovering to $5.50 because the whole strategy of oral tolerance will be put in doubt. When the stock goes down to 10.50 then I will sell some 15 puts for May expiration to cover myself in case my information is mistaken.

You're right, this thread is getting very quiet. Eerie, isn't it? Maybe that 40% correction forced some people out of the market.

I think that the next 2 months are going to be really rough for biotech companies like AIMM, XOMA and other companies that aren't earning anything yet. The Bre-X fiasco will cause a lot of investors to re-evaluate these companies that are more speculative and don't have a "guaranteed" market share and something to sell. I myself am an unfortunate Bre-X investor, my shares that I bought at $15 now worth $2. Oh well.

- Mark
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