IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV Message Board

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Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV

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To: Bud Wiser who wrote (6301)	8/25/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: scott	Read Replies (1) of 13157

Check the June 23 GMST Stephens report. Chart 6 on page 19 shows the technology adoption curve. The technology adoption curve is essentially a classic logistic growth curve. Stephens Inc. places IPGs (and therefore ITV as well) on the beginning of the growth curve. The beginning of the logistic growth curve is characterized by slow but accelerating growth. Growth becomes almost vertical in the middle of the curve at the inflection point. IPGs are listed first on the growth curve (slowest part of the curve) even before e-commerce. Clustered around the inflection point (explosive growth) are: 1st. online households; 2nd. Cellular phones (right at inflection point - e.g. QCOM, NOK, etc. - in other words, the most explosive growth); 3rd. Home Computers (after inflection point - i.e. slowing growth but still rapid). The point of this? Well, we are early in our ITV search. Patience will be required. There is still a lot to know and wonder about what the successful business models and technologies will be. If you want a more secure/certain player in the ITV market, then GMST should be considered. Heck - MSFT, T, TVGIA, ATHM, AOL, and others are more certain players with revenue from current businesses. I'm glad I have my coinage spread around a little. Witness WINK. No one here has offered a good analysis of exactly how they will compete with ACTV. Yet the market is affording WINK a substantial premium (close to 3x market cap). Moral: invest in stocks that have current meaningful revenue and are entering the middle of the logistic growth curve. Or, if investing in early adoption tech., be patient and spread the coinage out. Be prepared to wait for the market leaders to become evident and assert themselves. ACTV is WAY early in the cycle and still VERY speculative.

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