Steve and All,
Ashok Kumar, of Pipper Jaffry, is one of the best semiconductor analysts I have seen. Although, relatively new to PJ, in my opinion he is very quickly becoming a prominent force to be listened to. He has worked hands-on in the Semiconductor Industry, (I think for both Intel and AMD) and knows from what he is talking about. He is an extremely hard worker, well wired into the industry, and a prolific writer of reports.
Recall that it was Ashok Kumar who was the first analysts to come out with a "Buy" recommendation in early June 98. A gutsy call at the time, as it was right after Kurlak's negative comments that the stock was headed to 60. Intel was trading at 68 at the time. The day Kumar recommended Intel was the lowest INTC has been since.
I would also like to add a comment on Tom Kurak's past calls. What I believe Paul E. must have been referring to, when he recalled that Tom had downgraded INTC in early 96. I also recall that in January 96, Intel was trading at 52 when Tom Kurlak reiterated his "Sell" recommendation, saying that Intel could hit 40 soon. Over the following two days Intel did go down to about 48, (mostly because of Tom's call), and then turned upward, never looking back.
I remember also being at the Intel's analyst's meeting, some 5 months later. Tom was not there, (as was his usual pattern). That afternoon he was the brunt of informal conversation between many of the other analysts. It was joked that Tom would soon have to change his recommendation on Intel from "Neutral" to "Buy" . Intel was 82 or 83 at the time. Soon after Tom did up his short term rating on Intel to "Buy", but he was one of the last remaining analysts to do so. Tom Kurlak had missed some 30 points, and 40 + from the $40 a share that he called for, but that Intel never got to.*
Jules
* Please note that these are pre-split prices. |
