Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 94.23

-11.1%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: jetcityrandy who wrote (63223)	12/20/2000 11:27:24 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Randy: I used the option tool (Black Scholes equation) to value the gain at expiration (May 18) in the event of 30, 40 and 50 point runs (from the then price of 44-45). The winner turned out to be the May 60, but I couldn't get in yesterday w/o paying a premium. So I bought the 65 calls. By the time I had executed, the market had run the bus up to near 49. Assuming that the mu litigation is complete in March-April, Infineon is done by May 15, and Hyundai either folds operations, gets out of the DRAM bznz or capitulates to the Bus before the 18th of May, then I think 65 is a no-brainer. We will have demonstrated a consistent pattern of meeting or exceeding earnings for 2 more quarters, plus have the whole industry paying the piper by then. Remember, we were at 65 just 23 trading days ago.. Just call me the eternal foolish optimist <g>. BP

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