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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks
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To: Timoteo who wrote (6318)10/30/1997 2:27:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi  Read Replies (1) of 9285
 
Timeteo.

You are correct, VVUS was great for me. Best ride I have had all year. Right now however I am not sure. I have just started looking at it again. What appears to me is the following:

1. Clearly MUSE is getting a following.
2. VVUS P/E of about 40+ right now includes a loss of 0.31 4 q's ago. With there next q reporting, I estimate their P/E will go to the mid 20's. Low for a "growth company
3. Production seems to be going at full capacity and a new plant will open in New jersey in I believe q2 next yr.
4. Pfizer's drug will be out next yr. (I think q1) and with their PR muscle, the ED market is sure to expand. Trials seem good but I have been reading Pfizer Press releases and they always sound good.

Those are the positives that I see. The negatives I see are:

1. VVUS is still a one trick pony.Two if you count their rubber band
2. Pfizer's drug.PFE I think it is now called , is oral which is far superior to MUSE.
3. A bunch of current MUSE users will most likely at least try it thus I suspect a potential drop in sales or less growth when the PFE hits the market.

I haven't looked at any of the financials or SEC reports nor do I do TA charting. If you do then perhaps you could shed some light as to what you see.

The VVUS thread is somewhat like the ZITL thread. People very strong in their opinions and currently a lot of short bashing.

My feeling at present is that VVUS will outperform the market and I believe the market will give the highs another try or at least to the 8000 mark. My opinion however is only important to me and I have no rationale to support my comment, just gut feel.

Bottom line, I plan to watch it for awhile, believe it will go up to at least mid 30's and also see what I can find out about the Pfizer drug. I am not going to short it now until I can feel more confident about the Pfizer oral competition and the resultant expansion of the market.
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