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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.36+2.2%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6331)10/20/2002 10:11:04 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (2) of 95520
 
Intel's advantage will come when there is another shortage. Listening to Morgan and Bagley (AMAT and LRCX) it sounds like there is gross under investment in the future except by a few.

Even if the foundries invest, they will not be able to supply all the best to everyone. Intel will have fab capacity and thus they can find good IP that has a capacity shortage preventing it from really making bucks. Intel should be able to get a good deal on that IP because IP without fab capacity is obsolescence in the making. I like your ideas for ALTR and XLNX but I wonder if Intel will just license the technology?

Another part of having your own working fabs is you can pick and choose the best markets to target your capacity in an upturn while the others will have more problems. I think the tradeoffs have been around for a long time. The reason you get rid of fabs is you don't have to carry them on the downturns but when times are good, they really help you.

Interesting comparison here
quicken.com

they do look "reasonably priced" compared to Intel and they are a fraction of Intel's mkt cap but they sure don't generate much cash.
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