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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Robert K. who wrote (6316)	1/18/1999 10:09:00 PM
From: LLCF	of 9719

<. both the upside and the downside potential is significant, but the downside will be fully realized on the failure > From a strictly "expected value" point of view we could look at XOMA as a "bet". If we think the stock is worth $15 on approval, and $0 if no approval (the last nail in Xoma's coffin?) then the market is assuming approximately a 27% chance of approval. It may behoove us to come up with the best guess as to the correct inputs and then PLACE YOUR BETS! DAK

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