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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers
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To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (63643)2/22/2009 2:42:56 PM
From: John McCarthy1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 78408
 
Box

Note - swampdog is out with as post saying the technicals
on gold ain't wonderful and we have a good shot at gold
tanking in the short run. That aside.

Santoli's thesis is this deep:

There is too much noise on the air-waves talkin-up
up gold as the 2nd coming.

Thats his complete logic-feel on the current gold histronics.

Here's my thesis:

He's nuts.

There are histronics on the air-waves and they go like this:

(a) This is the buying opportunity of a life-time
to buy stocks.

(b) You must be selective in your stock picks -
ah - define selective.

(c) The USA and Europe are in the shitter but Asia
is lean and mean. i.e. China is the 2nd coming

(d) My favorite:The worst of the financial crisis
is over.

(e) If Banks would just lend we'd go back to the
good old days of 2004-2005.

I think there are several binary events coming:

(1) Japans GDP tanks for the 2nd quarter in a row

(2) China will hide stuff but at the end of the day
its export economy is in for a major downsizing
forcing them to use their foreign reserves to prop
up some normaized internal domestic economy.

(3) Finally - who is gonna buy all those USA bonds?

Even if some countries had the will - I don't think
they have the capacity to buy - but I am shooting
from the hip on this i.e no proof.

Once its clear that Asia is in the toilet too -
then everyone is gonna run to the devaluation exit.

Gold is a currency. Not a commodity. Not a store
of value. Its money.

regards
John
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