Bad Poll Numbers for Hillary as She Unveils Her Gun-Control Plan
Morning Jolt ... with Jim Geraghty
October 5, 2015
More and more, it looks like the Democrats have a uniquely weak crop of candidates this cycle:
In Iowa, Republican Jeb Bush leads Clinton by 10 points in a hypothetical general-election match up among registered voters, 50 percent to 40 percent, and Donald Trump is ahead of her by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- essentially unchanged from the poll’s results a month ago. And Carly Fiorina leads Clinton in the Hawkeye State by 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent. But when Sanders is matched up against these same Republicans, his numbers are stronger: Sanders leads Trump by five points in Iowa (48 percent to 43 percent). And he narrowly trails Bush (46 percent to 44 percent) and Fiorina (45 percent to 42 percent). The same dynamic plays out in New Hampshire. Clinton leads Trump in the Granite State (48 percent to 45 percent), but she’s behind Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) and Fiorina (50 percent to 42 percent). Yet Sanders has the advantage against both Trump (52 percent to 42 percent) and Fiorina (47 percent to 45 percent), and he’s tied against Bush in New Hampshire (46 percent to 46 percent).
Good heavens, with numbers that weak, I’m almost ready to endorse a candidate in the primary!
You’ll see a lot of Trump foes high-fiving and concluding Trump’s moment has passed, but let’s not overstate it. Sure, NBC’s new poll in Iowa has him sliding from 29 percent to 24 percent, and their new poll in New Hampshire has him sliding from 28 percent to 21 percent -- but Trump is still leading both states. Yes, there’s an Investor’s Business Daily national poll that has Ben Carson at 24 percent and Trump at 17 percent. But be a little wary because of the sample size (377 registered voters who are Republican or registered independents who lean toward the Republican party, with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points) and remember this is the first IBD/TIPP poll of the cycle.
Please Make the 2016 Election a Referendum on the Second Amendment!
But imagine how Hillary’s numbers will soar when she loudly embraces gun control!
Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton is set to unveil a sweeping gun-control proposal Monday that would include closing the “gun show loophole” and allowing victims of gun violence to sue firearm manufacturers. Almost no mass shooters buy their guns at gun shows! Very few criminals buy their guns at gun shows!
In a survey of almost 100 detainees in the Cook County Jail, few said they get firearms at gun shows or through the Internet, said Harold Pollack, co-director of the crime lab. They also said they don’t normally steal guns or buy them at a licensed store. About 70 percent said they got their guns from family, fellow gang members or through other social connections. Only two said they bought a gun at a store. It’s unclear how many of those surveyed were felons, but they can’t hold a state firearm owner’s permit -- so they can’t legally purchase a weapon at a store. Back to Hillary’s proposals:
Under the plan, which comes in the wake of a mass shooting at an Oregon community college that left 10 people dead last week, Clinton would tighten rules governing gun show and Internet sales using executive action “if Congress will not act,” aides said.
A runaway executive: Catch the fever! Show me where it says in the Constitution that if Congress does not pass a law, the president can enact the law through executive action? President Obama normalized ignoring the legislative branch.
She would also push to repeal a law backed by the National Rifle Association that prevents crime victims from suing gun manufacturers. And her proposal would revoke the licenses of “bad actor” dealers who knowingly supply guns to straw purchasers and traffickers.
Except knowingly selling to a straw purchaser is already a crime:
Furthermore, if a [federally licensed firearms dealer (FFL)] knew that the statements on Form 4473 were false and that a straw purchase was taking place, the FFL has also violated federal law. 18 U.S.C. § 922(d) prohibits any individual from selling a firearm to a person whom they know or have reason to know is a criminal or other prohibited buyer. A separate fascinating fact illustrating the difference between “gun deaths” and homicides: “Wyoming is an interesting case, because it has one of the highest firearm death rates but a homicide rate of zero.” Gun deaths can include suicide, unintentional discharges (accidents), non-homicide legal discharges (i.e. police or someone acting in self defense, so no charges are filed).
Jason Chaffetz Announces He’s Running for Speaker of the House
Utah Republican Jason Chaffetz is running for Speaker of the House . . . just to ensure I will stop complaining that House conservatives needed to set up a serious alternative to Kevin McCarthy. (Insert long debate as to whether Daniel Webster counts as a serious alternative).
It might be worth it just to freak out the leadership of the Secret Service, which loathes him because of his criticism of their scandals and failures and clumsily tried to embarrass him by releasing his application to join the Service.
Brit Hume, Sunday: “McCarthy started an unraveling process by his gaffe on the committee, which kind of gave people an excuse, a reason, to not support him. I don’t think there’s any way of knowing where this is going.”
I want the most conservative option as Speaker. Thus, when the most conservative Speaker comes back from negotiations with President Obama with half a loaf, or maybe somewhat more than half a loaf, I want the conservative grassroots to realize that sometimes that’s the best that you can do. My suspicion is that the conservatives will reject this and conclude that their leaders buckled and sold them out, that they’ve been stabbed in the back by spineless leaders again, and so on.
The Tea Party Leadership Fund is collecting signatures and asking for donations to make Trey Gowdy the new speaker of the House.
Never mind the fact that Trey Gowdy keeps insisting he doesn’t want the job, he’s not running for the job, and keeps reminding people he already has a very important task on the special committee investigating Benghazi that isn’t finished yet:
“What I said is, ‘I’m not your person. I don’t have the qualities that are necessary to be an effective leader. I’m very content where I am,’” Gowdy told The Hill Thursday, recalling his message to the group. The grassroots and establishment aren’t just walking around with different perspectives; they’re walking around with different sets of facts. Good folks are being told that if they just sign enough petitions and donate enough money, they can make Trey Gowdy speaker. |
