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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (63706)6/15/2006 1:01:00 AM
From: shades   of 110194
 
Laffer curve fallacies? I don't get it - Philster says kennedy's tax cuts DID NOT pay for themselves - I know he wouldn't say this flippantly - yet Kudlow keeps saying yes the tax cuts were good.

kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com

The fact is that the Laffer curve tax-cut paradigm remains the most powerful policy weapon in American politics. When you tax something more, you get less of it. JFK and LBJ both adhered to this principle, as did Ronald Reagan. Papa Bush deserted it and got whooped. Bill Clinton originally opposed it, and the Dems lost Congress as a result. When Clinton finally embraced it during his second term (with a cap gains tax cut) he did well.

George W. Bush successfully used tax cuts in 2003 to re-ignite the American economy, and lead the GOP to big election victories in 2002 and 2004. And the President and Karl Rove are going to use it again in 2006. But, as long as the Dems keep banging their heads against the Laffer curve brick wall, they are doomed to defeat.

As John Kasich pointed out recently on “Kudlow and Company,” nobody ever won a close race by promising tax hikes.

Winning Elections trumps long term survival of the nation perhaps?

socialize.morningstar.com

3. How Is Debt Defined?
rklepper| 06-13-06 | 04:18 PM
Debt is defined as publicly held federal debt.

This is taken from the footnote in the graph. What this means is that all of the debt that is issued in connection with Social Security is not included. This is sort of like going through the year borrowing money from your kids college fund and at the end of the year declaring yourself prudent because your debt is still manageable (of course the money borrowed from the college fund is excluded). The illusion of prudence persits until either (i) the child goes off to college or (ii) the money put aside for college runs out. Much of the criticiism of the "trust fund" is akin to these spend thrift parents then blaming the child for not putting the money out of their reach (but I digress).

I went there looking for this information because I knew I would find it. It's as predictable as the sun rising in the morning. Folks like Heritage really like to have their cake and eat it too, misusing statistics in very subtle ways. On the one hand they will go on and on about the phony "trust fund" and then talk about howmanageable the debt level by not considering it on that side either. It's the real problem with "think tanks". They are easily smart enough to understand exactly what they are doing, but unfortunately they have all sold their soul to the devil. The only difference is whether the devil is on the right or the left.

4. The essence of the matter
RobertH| 06-13-06 | 04:31 PM
From the article:

However, unless Social Security and Medicare are reformed, lawmakers risk allowing debt levels to increase until they cause the highest intergenerational tax increase in history.

The debt levels are not increasing because anybody misunderstood the nature of the Social Security and Medicare obligations. (Alan Greenspan chaired a committee to address Social Security's long-term solvency in 1982, which led to increases in social security taxes.) The debt is rising because we're spending down the surpluses that were to help pay for this obligation. (Or, what is the same thing, running deficits at higher levels than are consistent with funding this obligation.)
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