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Technology Stocks : Comverse Technology

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To: Eric Hochstein who wrote (637)	2/17/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: NotNeiderhoffer	of 1331

Eric, Ya live by the sword you die by the sword. You can set your watch by the seasonal tech weakness we see around this time of the year. I don't think this is much more than a vicious round of profit taking, but who knows maybe the stock will trade down to the 200 day moving average at... $55 DOH! On a more serious note, I think you might want to look at what jittery institutions own this thing. The last holder list I saw (spectrum) had AIM holding over 6 or 7 MILLION shares along with another 1 Million + with their mo-mo friends at Nicholas Applegate. AIM and to some extent Nick App operate under the following rules as far as I can tell: 1) they buy stocks going up 2) they sell stocks going down 3) they often disregard fundamentals and revert to #1 and #2 above far be it from me to diss their style, but I often can't make sense of what they do. They do like to trade though. AGGRESSIVELY it was fun on the way up! A lot of money managers are also wary of buying stocks that these guys hold huge positions in because they ultimately trash the stocks. When there is blood in the streets the shorts also like to target names they own figuring at some point they will sell them indiscriminately. Does that mean they are selling? No, I have no clue but part of analyzing a stock should include sizing up the shareholder base and right now this one is... scary I figure earnings are in good shape going forward but the stock will bounce around. I like to use the point and figure TA and the price target the pros at UST securities were using was $83. This was back when the stock was in the $50s. We got there with a couple of bucks to spare. I will tough it out for now BTW-you can't sell the stock, the taxes would kill ya! NotmuchofamarkettimerNeiderhoffer

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