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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 682.06

+0.3%

Oct 31 5:00 PM EST

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From: Robohogs	11/4/2016 10:43:15 AM
	of 668

I posted a ton of data looking at cycles and breadth around the last few bear mkts and mini-bears over on twitter. Look for robohogs. Conclusion: timing cycles say outside chance we have 7 more down days in XBI BUT the timing into a low yday matched timing into the first big low after recovery in 2009 and the timing into another major low. Added to that, using data from Subject 25738 , I looked at the March 08 mini-bear, the Nov 08 bear 1, March 09 bear 2, the Oct 31 2009 huge correction low, the Feb 2016 low and a few mini-crash lows. Conclusion: except for the January 2016 bear, breadth data says we are at or near the low. We could have 2-3% downside left but unless we are in full Jan 2016 crash mode, a tradeable low is close. In the data analyzed, that means 10-15% in 1-2 weeks btw. Right now using timing cycles, calendar stuff and breadth, I think we are still running 2008/09 analog. Eventually higher. One other interesting sub-point (after I warned we might need hard down today): the two bear lows in 08/09 both had Thur lows. Highly unusual. Big selling usually continues into Friday AND Monday. Jon

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