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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who started this subject5/26/2002 7:57:19 PM
From: Michail Shadkin   of 6873
 
World Series of Poker - Hand History and Advanced Lesson

This particular hand will give you an idea of what large tournament play is all about and the thinking involved.

The Event - 10K buying No-Limit Hold'Em

Its mid way though day 2 and I am in solid chip position (but not great) with about 40K in chips (this puts me in the top 15% of the field.

I have not picked up a single good hand yet in the tournament, so many fancy plays are necessary to keep building your chips.

Blinds are 300-600 and anti of 75 per hand.

Player first to act (around 25K in chips) raises to 1500
He is overall a solid player, he has shown 1 huge bluff and is capable of making such plays again.
Players raising under the gun are usually more likely to have better hands, as they aren't really raising to steal blinds, but rather for value and to narrow the field.
He did underraise slightly (usually the average raise is about 3.5 times the big blind, which would be about 2100 in this case)
He is either trying to induce a reraise with a huge hand or just testing the water with solid hand, but not great)

Player 2 calls 1500 just behind player 1 (which also early position, he has about 20k in chips)
This player appeared to be an inferior player and played most of his hands quite weak.
If he had a a large pocket pair he almost certainly would of reraised, AK he likely also would of raised as he has already shown once.
So, he most likely has a small to medium size pair or AQ, AJ suited.

Keep in mind, nobody wants to play a huge hand and risk all their chips unless they have something great.
You don't win a 5 day tournament on day 2.
You just look to survive for now and slowly build chips.

I am on the button, meaning last to act before the blinds do.
To me, this pot has steal has written all over it.

I look at my first card only and its a 3, and I then raise and make it a total of 6000 being cool a cucumber.
Second card is irrelevant, since I am on a total bluff/steal.

The blinds fold and Player 1 now has a decision to make.
He had 25k in chips to start the hand and has 1500 already in the pot.
If he calls, he will have 25% of his chips in the pot and he is out of position (which in no limit is huge)
He basically has to fold or raise, he needs QQ/KK/AA or try a reraise all in on a bluff/semi bluff hoping I am stealing.
His decision is much tougher because there is also player 2 behind him and he isn't sure what to make of his hand.

Also, since I raised 2 people with presumably solid hands, it would make perfect sense that I have a great hand AA/KK, at least in their eyes.

If Player 1 calls, its is very likely he will be risking all his chips.

He thinks for a minute and throws his hand away.

Player 2 has the same dilemma - how could I reraise 2 players without having a huge hand.
So he throws his hand away.

Neither player wanted to risk committing large chips to a hand this early in a tournament, out of position and likely a much inferior hand.

On this hand I won 1500*2 plus the blinds and antis
total of 4575 by risking 6000

If either player reraised me, it would of been certain what they have and I would of folded immediately.

If they called, I know I am dead on the hand and will fold immediately unless I get a big flop or think I can make them fold with another large bluff bet.

This is just 1 of many crucial decision/plays that is necessary to win a $2 million tournament.

See you at the tables
Michail
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