..."George Gilder for nc computers...."
I have read Gilders writings, and I still think he is the closest
thing to a technology visionary despite that comment about the
dominance of network computers.
Have you read his works? Historically, he is very good at predicting
large/long term trends, but he has failed before at describing how it
will be implemented in the short term. If you have read his stuff,
you will know what I mean.
I am using a network computer right now. It is not made by any
of the network computer manufacturers. It is a Compaq 486/33, without
a disk drive. Oh, yeah all my applications run from the server, so I
don't have to the soft costs with updating software. You know,
one copy of software, instead of hundreds.
If you are familiar with the thick vs thin client debate, it becomes
obvious from what I have just mentioned that a thick pc can become
a slim pc whenever you want it to.
First the net pc was going to be a cheap alternative for the home.
Well, Web TV kinda took care of that. Now they say it will replace
the pc in corporations due to soft costs. Yep, soft costs sure are
high, and due to the increased visibility of this issue many companies
are looking for ways to reduce their soft costs. Are companies looking
to reduce their soft costs via the net pc? No. Why not? Because
their are already more mature cost effective, technologies,
like workstation management software that does the job.
Oh yeah, did I mention that both Intel and Microsft have products
specifically designed to reduce these soft costs?
And just one other thing. The major research firms, like Forester,
predict that at the best, net pc's will be used to replace Unix
terminals.
For Intel to do poorly, one of two things have to happen. Someone
comes up with way better/cheaper microprocessors, or corporations
start thinking that increasing functionality while reducing costs
does not make them more money.
The funny thing is people think this stock has topped, when actually
we are just beginning to see the places the microprocessor will
be used pratically.
I have owned Intel for about 6 years and never sold. I have averaged
more than 100% return per year. Past resluts can't guarantee future
returns, but I would say don't worry. You made a good choice.
Jon :) |
