The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: DD™ who wrote (6402)	9/30/2011 12:16:12 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 10065

ECRI says we are entering a recession. I posted an article for SeekingAlpha about it that should go up in the next few hours to days. with charts I'm not allowed to publish here... With less government spending to stimulate the economy and state governments cutting ... I can't help but think GDP will be negative and jobs will get worse before it gets better. The question for me is does the market ALREADY discount this with its low valuation on past data? I publish a monthly table with PE and PEGs for the market. The PEG for the S&P500 in 2012 is awful with the current low growth numbers for 2012 earnings. IF we have a recession now that continues into 2012... the projections could be correct that companies will be lucky to grown earnings by 5% with 2% productivity improvements and maybe falling commodity prices with flat sales... but if they have to pay for things like higher health care... earnings could be flat or even fall...

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