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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: David B. Higgs who wrote (6408)12/26/1997 3:54:00 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 64865
 
A 60% return from today's stock price of 38 would mean that SUNW stock must reach 61
sometime in 1998. I submit to this thread that this is very likey.

To back up my statement I will simply use the track record of Sun Micro over the
last 3 years (split adjusted):
1995 Low 7.5 High 25 Price at begin of year 9
1996 Low 18 High 35 22
1997 Low 25 High 53 26
1998 ? ? ?

A 20% increase over last year's high of 53 would give us a target high of 63.5.
I choose 20% as that is the current PE (and Addi may consider this to be too low).
In 1996, the worst year of the 3 for this analysis, buying on Jan 1 would have
returned a 60% gain if you sold at the high.

Obviously we can't all sell at the high, but I think that one could easily attain
a 60% return in SUNW with a purchase at the current level.

The external forces must always be considered: market strength, competition,
invovation, law suits, mergers and acquisitions, etc...all have major parts to play
in the future performance of this (or any) stock.

Please Note: The lowest price each year for SUNW is approximately 20% below that of
January 1st price. (very interesting!)

My projections for 1998:

Low 31 High 65 Price at begin of year 40

....above my opinion....Michael
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