Whew! and Boy o' Boy!
I had to do about 35 hours of continuing education over the last 3 days for my license renewal. One of the courses I took was Financial Statement Analysis, which pretty much convinced me to totally move away from PE and towards price to cash flow per share. A new toy to play with as time permits.
I was so wrapped up in my own problems Friday that I really did not appreciate the overall technical damage that was done. Clearly, the financials got crushed.
More importantly, the breakout trend line on OEX failed. Ouch! If one draws a trend line from the tippy tops on 4/27, 5/13 and 6/22, and extends to date, the line was broken. The importance of that line is that it correctly predicted the upward extent of the move to ~736. This analysis is with total appreciation to bobby beara on the MDA thread, as I did not see it at the time. (Then I stepped into a broken H&S on F, so my analytical abilities get called into question).
The bottom line is that the next couple of days are of critical importance. Down is still significantly below us. I show the weekly OEX lower trend line at 615 and rising about 3 points per week. I expect that any rally will stall at about OEX 705. I do believe that we will visit OEX 665 and probably OEX 645 in August. Not the end of the world, but you can see it from here!
BTW I did take the time to do my civic duty and cast my vote on the new, improved SI issue.
JMHO, BWDIK and A View from the Swamp
PBTB
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