I like your DCB number crunch. However, I think RMDY and RATL aren't relevant at all. RATL is a tools company, not an apps company. RMDY does the internal help-desk and that is not a strategic app, just basic (commodity) infrastructure which everybody and their brother can do (NETA, IBM + about 10k other standalones). CLFY and SCOP are more strategic so they are closer but those are 'automation' apps not 'optimization' apps. CLFY's blow up was a lack of sales hiring, a A/R stretch and a change in accounting policies. SCOP was a sales execution issue (complexity and deal size increases) like MANU was. But SCOP stumbled at much smaller levels of revenue so I think everybody figured that if they couldn't grow at that tiny a size, it wasn't a real company. MANU is a real company, so I doubt it will be as given up on as SCOP but if SCOP can lost 71% of its value ($35 to $10), MANU could lose 60% from its high ($65 to $25). Who knows? That said, if SCOP's technology value was realized with a merger price as a double off the low ($20), MANU's definitely could too - even more so given the scarcity value (how's $50 sound??).
SAP is going to try to do SCM on their own but PSFT, BAAN, ORCL and JDEC understand that they do not have the resources and cannot get the engineers to do anything within spitting distance of MANU and ITWO (and SAP's eventual product). PSFT bought Red Pepper but Peoplesoft really isn't a player in manufacturing anyway, they target services companies. That leaves Baan, JD Edwards and Oracle.
Hey, maybe i2 buys MANU like SEBL bought SCOP just so no ERP can get 'em. Did you hear that Goldman Sachs?? - go to Irving, Texas and make the merger pitch next week. |
