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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 224.22

+1.0%

Feb 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bobo who wrote (6461)	7/11/1997 3:05:00 PM
From: Marc Hyman	of 61433

My questions are as follows: - Are the majority of USR's central ports at AOL, MCI, ATT are analog? This seems a bit out of whack since these are pretty big dogs. I don't know for sure, but I'd guess not. The small mom/pop ISPs may be using analog modems, but the large ones such as you mentioned would almost certainly be feeding modems with T1/PRI lines into something like a Total Control, MAX, or Portmaster. - Does a digital central port imply ISDN? Not necessarily. A box could be fed with a T1 using robbed bit signaling which rules out ISDN. However, if the vendors support PRI signaling it is not that much code (given enough processor horsepower) to allow digital connections such as ISDN or DDS, too. That does not mean that the ISP will enable the feature, however. I've heard that both Livingston and Ascend are actively shipping 56K modems. Both also seem to be using the same strategy to counter X2: give them away! (well, almost :-) The COMS/USRX strategy was to make sure that most users had X2 so the users would presure their providers to buy X2 central site equipment. The real PROFIT is in the central site equipment, not the modems. The ASND/Livingston) strategy seems to be make it painless to upgrade the central sites so when user calls in asking about 56k the only answer he'll get is ROK/LU. Long term (greater than one year) I don't think it makes a damn bit if difference. Short term seems to have worked for COMS/USRX. It's still a bit early to tell if the ASND/Livingston strategy has worked. All of the above is pure conjecture on my part and may have no bearing on the actual facts (and strategies) of the mentioned companies. // marc

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