Hi IHSC,
<<Do you think the downtrend will continue from Friday?>>
Yes.
The intraday 5 min chart shows that QQQQ clearly failed at intraday support from the 40 ema. Technicals suggest the intitial move at the open will be up, but quickly followed by a continuation of the trend from Friday. As of now, the e mini Naz futures are trading slightly up, but this is very early trading and is of limited value. Personally, I'd rather see QQQQ open slightly up and make an initial move to the upside and find sellers there. That will all but ensure that the rest of the session is down.
139.142.147.22
Market Internals:
After rising for the first half of the month of May, the 13 sma of the $TICK has been dropping. Friday, the $TICK dropped rather precipitously, but has not reached an extreme low as of yet. So I suspect it will continue falling into the open tomorrow:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyyay[db][pb13][vc60]&pref=G
The $TICKQ is a bit delayed, but shows essentially the same thing:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyyay[db][pb13][vc60]&pref=G
The $TRIN is rising, and now it's 13 sma appears also to be reversing upwards:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyyay[db][pb13][vc60]&pref=G
This can be seem more clearly on the $TRINQ:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyyay[db][pb13][vc60]&pref=G
The $VIX appears to have stabilized on support now, and is looking like reversal has begun to the upside (meaning downward pressure on prices):
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb13!c8][vc60]&pref=G
The $VXN and $QQV are in agreement with this:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb13!c8][vc60]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb13!c8][vc60]&pref=G
After reaching somewhat of a bullish extreme at the beginning of June, the CBOE put/call has now been climbing:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb13!c8][vc60]&pref=G
So the market internals look to me to give a pretty consistent picture, and agree with the chart and technical indicators that QQQQ is headed down from here.
Finally, volume patterns indicate considerable downward pressure on QQQQ, since there is a lot of unprocessed distribution volume that QQQQ must digest and react to sooner or later. The resolution of this volume buildup has already been delayed over a week, making things less and less stable, and making a stronger move down increasingly likely.
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