Bobo asks Marc about 56k deployment, based on the ZOOM conference call:
Bobo asks: "The statement was made that Ascend had 2.2mm digital central ports at the eof 96 and USR had only 200-300K. It was then concluded that USR had its easy x2 upgrades done already while Ascend's upgrading of their customer base would be quite fast."
Unfortunately, the USR upgrade was also low cost, since it was just a software download, but the Ascend equipment needed new cards, which are finally arriving, but which took long enough to give USR some advantage. We don't know yet (but will probably see part of it in the coming earnings report) just how much this is costing Ascend.
"The CEO provided an example of a Boston ISP w/ 30k subscribers that was 100% USR analog. He stated that an upgrade to x2 would cost the ISP $350/port (I assume this included digital upgrades and equip cost).... Are the majority of USR's central ports at AOL, MCI, ATT are analog? This seems a bit out of whack since these are pretty big dogs. Does a digital central port imply ISDN?"
This is FUD on the Zoom CEO's part... the same costs would be incurred if it was an Ascend customer with analog modems, and wanted to upgrade. Neither x2 nor K56 will run with an analog server interface.
Now, there aren't all that many ISPs in the US which are actually using analog, since both "robbed bit" T1 and ISDN PRI are available, and not tarriffed unreasonably... it's true that some small ISPs may have upgrades... but they would need them regardless of whose hardware they bought.
I doubt if the large national ISPs are using much analog at all. The kind of analog ISP being cited here often came out of the old computer BBS community, and doesn't have a managed internet hub at all, but rather a PC (running BSDI or Linux, or maybe a small Sun) and a tippy, overheating pile of "consumer" modems.
I agree with Marc (in #6463) who says that (a) COMS strategy to take market share now is working, and (b) that none of this matters in the long run, because the eventual standard will equalize everyone. What matters in the long run, however, is that COMS/USR is getting into ISPs that they weren't in before, costing Ascend market share. And it's not really Ascend's fault (I'd rather blame Rockwell, myself, but you can argue it), but it will cost Ascend earnings.
Let's see what shows in the upcoming quarterly report.
Dick |
