Bush Holds Slight Edge, but Faces Hurdles With Undecided Voters
online.wsj.com
By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 27, 2004; Page A1
As President Bush heads toward next week's Republican convention in New York, he faces a conundrum: The same policies that have secured his conservative base and given him a slight lead in the presidential race are now complicating his bid to win over crucial undecided voters.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that he approaches the 2004 homestretch with majorities disapproving of his approach to critical foreign and domestic issues alike and saying his policies on Iraq, health care and jobs and the economy need "major adjustments" or outright reversal. Among the one in five voters who say they are undecided or leaning one way but open to persuasion, those majorities are overwhelming.
The good news for Mr. Bush is that he continues to hold a slim 47%-to-45% national lead over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry -- though the poll has a margin of 3.5 percentage points, so that amounts to a statistical dead heat. Three years after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 transformed his presidency, his handling of the war on terror continues to give him a solid foundation of support.
The president also brings significant personal strengths to bear on his attempt to lure moderates who disagree with his policy views: By a 2-to-1 margin, voters give him high ratings for being "easygoing and likable."
But the poll also shows the president trailing Mr. Kerry by four percentage points among respondents in 17 closely-contested battleground states. The president's poor ratings on issues mean it will be tough to win over some of those who make up the thin sliver of the electorate that is undecided. Though the poll suggests they haven't given up on Mr. Bush, or been sold on Mr. Kerry, the findings indicate many aren't satisfied with the president's performance on key issues.
"It's a very difficult haul to get...higher on the ballot," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. The survey was conducted this week among 806 registered voters.
The president will have a chance to reach those swing voters at next week's convention, which will showcase Republicans who have strong appeal to moderate voters such as Arizona Sen. John McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. In his nomination speech next Thursday night, Mr. Bush has the opportunity to outline his goals for a second term -- something that six in 10 Americans say he has failed to do so far -- before a wide audience.
The question is what sort of agenda Mr. Bush can offer to attract new supporters without alienating his conservative base. While his job performance so far has earned him 79% approval among conservatives, 55% of persuadable voters disapprove. Persuadable voters, 19% of the electorate, include those who say they are still undecided or not yet fixed in their presidential choice.
Overall, 50% of the electorate says the nation has gotten on the wrong track, while just 36% say it's heading in the right direction. Among independents, 60% say the nation is headed in the wrong direction. By 50% to 46%, voters say Mr. Bush doesn't deserve to be re-elected to a second term.
Mr. Bush's handling of the antiterror war continues to represent his greatest asset as Republicans gather several miles from the site of the World Trade Center. While the electorate splits on the president's overall job performance -- 47% approve, 48% disapprove -- Mr. Bush enjoys approval by a 53%-to-42% margin on dealing with the war on terrorism.
Another significant advantage for the president is Mr. Kerry's inability to improve voter assessments of his leadership in the wake of his own nomination acceptance speech last month in Boston. While Mr. Kerry's positive ratings edged up to 44% from 42% before the convention, his negative ratings increased by five percentage points to 40%.
In particular, the poll suggests that recent attacks on Mr. Kerry's Vietnam War record by the independent group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth may have taken a toll. Just 35% of voters say they have confidence in the Massachusetts senator's ability to be commander in chief, essentially unchanged since the spring. Some 49% give Mr. Bush high marks as commander in chief.
At the same time, the president's personal assets have been eroded by Democratic attacks and controversies over such issues as the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. While Mr. Bush continues to receive positive marks for his "strong leadership qualities," his 50% approval on that dimension matches the weakest of his presidency. Just 45% of voters rate him highly for "being honest and straightforward," while 39% give him low marks.
More problematic are the ratings Mr. Bush receives on the issues, aside from the broader antiterror war, that have dominated campaign debate thus far. On Iraq, a 51% majority says Mr. Bush needs to change his approach, and a 49% plurality says removing Saddam Hussein from power wasn't worth the human and financial costs. By 51% to 43%, voters say it is appropriate to begin considering troop reductions in Baghdad, which Mr. Kerry recently suggested could begin in the first six months of his presidency.
On the domestic front, the most critical issue is the economy, for which Mr. Hart describes the president's ratings as "dreadful." Some 52% of voters overall disapprove of the president's handling of the economy, and the proportion who say the economy has gotten better in the past year has fallen to 29%. Despite a revival of economic growth overall, voters say by a 2-to-1 margin that circumstances for middle- and working-class families aren't improving.
Those negative assessments span Mr. Bush's handling of a series of issues. By 55% to 38%, voters say the president's tax cuts mostly have benefited the wealthy rather than all Americans. As oil prices hit record levels, six in 10 voters criticize his approach to gas prices. Some 58% of voters want major changes in the president's approach to health care, while 55% say the same thing about his policies on jobs. |
