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Technology Stocks : For Hedge Fund Analysts and Managers

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (61)6/5/2000 5:07:00 PM
From: Wizard   of 499
 
>>so before we get to wireless names, how about discussing the sector? i'm a neophyte here, it feels like the sector gets much more interesting when there's finally an infrastructure that can support multimegabit speeds. it seems like the hodge podge mediocrity of US networks puts us 5 years away from a widespread g3 capability.

Nokia quoted some 3rd party research very recently; it said that the total worldwide mobile device user base forecast (made in 1997) was 1 billion by 2005. That same firm, as of the end of 1999, was saying 1 billion by 2002. That is a pretty staggering revision.

I am not a wireless guy either but as far as I can tell, the software guys are where a new big company might be built. Selling chips for a few bucks a piece is a game that is going to be won by the deep-pocketed manufacturing experts. That is not much fun. I see 3 players in software; Infospace, Phone.com and Aether. Company managements I speak to always seem to bring up Phone.com as the key partner for wireless. That is usually pretty bullish. I own some PHCM and INSP. AETH acts like a champ, I really don't know diddly about AETH though and its running away from me.

Phone.com seems to think the key is getting non-PHCM employee as developers. The company said they had 62k at the end of March up from 4.7k at 3/99. This should be a good leading indicator of services offered. More later...
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