Seybold is squarely in the CDMA2000 corner.
By Andrew M. Seybold
9 July 2002
The Sprint PCS 3G Launch
I admit it. I am an optimist. Im expecting the launch of the Sprint PCS 3G network in early August to be a
watershed event. Okay, lets get the terminology out of the way first. Sprint PCS CDMA 2000 1x is a 3G
systems based on the definition of 3G posted on the International Telecommunications Union Site
(www.itu.org) which specifically calls out CDMA 2000 1x as a 3G technology. So for the purposes of this
commentary, I consider both the Sprint PCS system and Verizons system to be 3G and GSM/GPRS to be
2.5G. In reality, packet-data speeds experienced by users on Sprint PCS and Verizon are more in the
60-80-Kbps range with peak data rates up to 144 Kbps specification. Some within the GSM/GPRS
community take exception with this, but the bottom line is that the Sprint PCS and Verizon CDMA2000 1x
networks offer wireless packet-data speeds that are faster than those being offered (in real life) by the
GSM/GPRS community. If they disagree with the ITU listing of CDMA2000 1x as a 3G technology, they can
take it up with the ITU!
I believe that the Sprint PCS launch of its CDMA 2000 1x network, services and wireless devices will
accomplish the following:
Set new pricing models that the rest of the industry will have to meet Focus attention on wireless packet-data
services and devices Start a marketing and sales "war" for data customers that will benefit ALL wireless
networks that are now data capable Attract both business and consumer customers Move the industry away
from monochrome, browser-enabled phones that provide text-only access to the "wireless Internet" Show
that solutions-based wireless data selling is the right approach Jumpstart the entire wireless data market
Am I being too optimistic? Perhaps. There are those who would say that Im giving Sprint PCS far too much
credit. Verizon, Im sure, will take issue with my belief that Sprint PCS will be the one to kick-start wireless
data services in the U.S. Verizon has been offering 3G services for a while but there hasnt been any crowing
about the number of wireless data customers. This probably means that like Cingular, VoiceStream and
AT&T Wireless, Verizons numbers have not met expectations.
Competitors should welcome Sprint PCS entry into the wireless data industry. In 1981 when IBM first
entered the PC market, Apple Computer took out a full-page ad welcoming IBM. Why? Because IBMs entry
added credibility to the PC market. Im not saying that its the IBM of the wireless data market, but of all of the
network operators Ive been watching, Sprint PCS appears to be the only one willing to dive into wireless
data with both feet.
If you think Im blowing the Sprint PCS CDMA2000 1x launch out of proportion and youre right, then this
industry is going to have to find another way to jumpstart the lackluster wireless data market. If the Koreans
can sell 8 million 3G wireless devices in less than two years, and KDDI in Japan can add more than 1
million 3G users in three months, there must be some ignition point in the U.S. I believe that our ignition
point will be the launch of the Sprint PCS CDMA2000 1x system.
My hope is that Sprint PCS has learned from all of the other network operators, watching the slow uptake
and understanding what is needed:
Reasonable pricing models Reasonable network coverage Network capacity and reliability A good selection
of voice-and-data-capable devices A number of "out-of-the-box" end-user solutions for both consumers and
business users A sales force that can explain the advantages of wireless data services
I truly believe that there is a pent-up demand for wireless data services. Unfortunately, the industry has done
a damn poor job of capitalizing on this demand by making wireless data more difficult to implement than it
should be. Good marketing, a choice of keyboard-centric, color devices and a reasonably priced set of
services will appeal to people who would like to try wireless data services as well as people who have
already tried them and given up for any number of reasons.
My Advice
My advice to the industry is to welcome Sprint PCS to the world of wireless data services. Dont get caught
up in the battle of data speeds for the various technologies---they are ALL usable for most of todays
important applications. Focus on the fact that wireless data services are available on ALL of the top
networks, devices and services are becoming more plentiful and prices are coming down.
If all that perspective wireless data users hear after the Sprint PCS CDMA2000 1x launch is as bunch of
hype about technology or speed, theyll yawn and stay with their voice devices. If, on the other hand, they
hear that wireless data saves money, saves time, is fun (yes, fun) and gives them a new freedom, ALL of the
networks will win.
According to sources close to Sprint PCS, we have about a month before launch. I hope that the rest of the
industry will use this month to prepare their own marketing offensives that are based on creating demand for
wireless data services and not on whos technology is better or faster. Technology is boring and customers
dont want to deal with it. They want to go into a store, buy a device, sign up for a service and be able to
make use of that service.
This launch could turn out to be the kick in the butt that the industry needs to get data users signed up not in
dribs and drabs, but in much larger numbers. If, for example, a Sprint PCS customer shows off his or her new
data-capable device to an AT&T Wireless subscriber who then wants to become a data user, the first place
this person will go is back to AT&T Wireless. AT&T Wireless will either keep the customer by being able
to offer the same type of services or lose the customer because it hasnt put together a competitive offering to
meet the challenge that I believe is coming from Sprint PCS.
I would like to be the first to welcome Sprint PCS to the world of wireless packet data!
Andrew M. Seybold <andy@outlook4mobility.com> |
