The Great Coin Toss Experiment II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Great Coin Toss Experiment II

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (64)	3/7/2003 1:29:14 AM
From: Sojourner Smith	Read Replies (2) of 188

I have been thinking about the coin toss approach alot lately. Basically from what I can tell so far the coin toss method will lose money. Tossing a coin is 50/50. The market appears to be about 35-48% range to be right with the broker and the spread getting the difference. In Tradestation I have been testing selling short after the open and covering at the end of the day. I also went on the buy side. Both sides lost money on every stock I tested long term. Which makes sense since it is a 50/50 shot, then minus commission, one has the loss. I tried overnight, and more surprising to me was the results seem be about the same. What I find surprising is I tested this with some major downtrending stocks. The have pretty much have to collapse to have gains when shorting. So it appears to me there is definitely a house advantage. I am working backwards now to find a way to improve the odds.

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