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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: GraceZ who wrote (6507)8/2/2001 5:30:55 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön   of 74559
 
What is funny is that the Bear argument back then when the index was flying was that the wider market was dogging it and the index was making things look rosier than they were. Now the Bear argument is look at what happened to the indexes and who cares about a lot of obscure mid-cap stocks that are doing great.

good observation. on the other hand, many value stocks have done so well they may have gotten ahead of themselves.

in any given time frame there's a reason to be bearish and a reason to be bullish

it all points to the benefits of diversification. the problem is, we all want to fight the last war or stick with "what works" in recent memory. they call this the "recency" phenomenon. that is why people continue to buy schlocky US companies when the S&P is likely (IMO) to underperform other asset classes for the next decade or two. just like, in 1980 people were still buying gold and other commodities, and in 1990 they were still buying japanese stocks. so today, they think the S&P is the place to be because it did so well in the late 90s.

who buys commodities today? who buys foreign stocks? no, the S&P is where people go.

bold prediction (<g>): in 10 years, nobody will want nasdaq stocks, and they may be great buys then.
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