So you believe that this bear market is over? That is, a 15 year bull market followed by a 1-1 1/2 year bear, and then a new bull?
I agree that everyone seems to "want" to buy and believe anything good. I agree that the government is doing all it can to prop up the market -- including a well-timed killing or capture of Bin Laden most probably. They have opened the money flow full-force. At this stage of so many previous screw-ups, they really have no choice, but that still does not lessen the catastrophe they have brewed. But, the lemmings are "in the mood" obviously -- CIEN takes 1.7 billion charge, lays off 10%, and stock goes up; AMAT report is pitiful and they close operations several more days to save money and stock doesn't crash; Vodafone losses are HUGE and stock rises; Boeing basically admits cutting revenues for 1000 planes and says no return to normal for almost 4 years perhaps, while American plane falls apart and Boeing stock almost stays even; CISCO says slowdown may last ANOTHER 2 YEARS and stock is NOT punished with a "slightly" high PE; Micron is losing money hand over fist (and will continue to) even with DRAM prices up, but Micron stock is up HUGE in past month! Yep, buying is in with NO regard for facts. BUT, it only lasts for a little longer. Reality ALWAYS eventually rules. This market is toast. With the abuses that set up the stock bubble and this debt from the ground up, this will be no 1-2 year bear. You may get some bull swings at various times, but if you are buying and holding for the next SEVERAL years, you will LOSE money.
I remain,
SOROS |
