2003 Chip Growth Forecast Cut 25 minutes ago
Lisa Gill, www.NewsFactor.com
story.news.yahoo.com
Blaming stalled U.S. and European economies, a trade group that includes chipmakers AMD (NYSE: AMD - news), IBM (NYSE: IBM - news) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC - news) has revised its sales forecasts downward for 2003.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) Committee cut its forecast for chip sales growth from 21.7 percent to 16.6 percent, citing a delay in an electronics recovery that had been expected to materialize in this year's fourth quarter. Even worse, the Americas are expected to see sales decline by 11.3 percent next year.
"It looks like most of the growth will be toward the back half of 2003," Americas vice chairman of the WSTS Bill Jewell told the E-Commerce Times. "Originally, we were planning on a good pickup in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The third quarter was good, but it looks like the fourth quarter won't be quite what we expected."
The trade group reiterated its original forecast of 2.3 percent growth for 2002, which would amount to US$142 billion in sales worldwide. This anticipated growth comes after a devastating 32 percent drop in sales last year -- the industry's worst-ever performance.
Asia Markets Stay Strong
The WSTS said stronger Asia-Pacific markets will be the primary driver of the industry next year, with predicted growth of 21.6 percent, to $66 billion. This year's growth in that region was estimated to be about 31.1 percent.
Jewell credited U.S. manufacturing that has been moved to Asia-Pacific for part of the jump. "The second factor is that the Asian economies are the strongest growing economies in the world right now, and so local consumption of electronics is also driving stronger semiconductor growth in those regions," he added.
Growth Rates Not Clear
But despite the WSTS forecast for 16.6 percent growth worldwide in 2003, other industry indicators hint at less dramatic growth rates, according to Gartner principal semiconductor analyst Richard Gordon.
"I think that's an unachievable number for next year," Gordon told the E-Commerce Times. "If you look around at other forecasters in the industry, the Wall Street guys and other research houses, we're all coming in the low teens and ten percent range." |
