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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank
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To: lee kramer who wrote (65501)10/10/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: Long John  Read Replies (1) of 120523
 
Lee, thanks for the questions, I'm glad you made me look at the data again. I made a mistake. The results should look like this:

68% of the Earnings Plays opened higher after earnings were reported. By the close of the first day after earnings only 45% were still up for the day. Whether or not the stock closed up or down the day before earnings did not make a difference by itself. The percentages I quoted earlier compared the closing price 1 day after earnings to the close 2 days before earnings (instead of 1 day). The stocks that closed up the day before did gain about 1% more on average after earnings, but that is not a significant difference. However, how the stock performed just before earnings is one factor out of many that can be used to decide when to hold through earnings. I will keep running tests like these to find significant results.

Anyway, the sample size was 212, the time period was April - September, 1999. The Earnings Plays included in the sample were those that Jenna called on SI as having buy triggers before earnings. These are the plays that I have been tracking on my web site and that I used for the analyses I wrote for the MG Manual. Sorry for the mix-up.

John
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