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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.76

+1.1%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (6551)	10/30/2002 8:05:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 95531

RE: "...without a material change in the underlying fundamentals (which we haven't seen) the potential for additional upside is limited." I wonder what "a material change" means. Alcatel seems to have forecast a "material change". Stocks don't wait for a "material change" to be "seen" before they move up. There is a risk that a forecast, such as Alcatel's may be wrong, but the risk is reduced when stock prices are very low. That is why it takes very little in the way of "material change" to spur a rally off the bottom. Most of the forecasts I have read lately say mid 2003 to early 2004 for a significant recovery in tech. As someone said recently, prices overshoot on both the upside and downside. A case may be made that we have seen the overshoot to the downside already and that this rally may just be a return to rational valuation. By "rational", I mean an end to attempts to discount economic crashes, depressions, and "secular bears". I may be wrong again this time, but I will only need to be right once!

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