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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: jeffbas who wrote (6564)4/3/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: Michael Burry   of 78670
 
That mutual funds will find a crisis in the redemption/selling stock balance is for me a given.

I frequently tell colleagues that I envision a time in the future when a group of workers sitting around the water cooler are talking about their mutual funds. The mood is resignation after panic. The market is crashing, and some event has finally spooked the American public. Everyone is pulling out of mutual funds, but the mutual funds can no longer guarantee that the sale will get done on time. They can't sell stock fast enough. Fred says, "Fidelity will get me my money by Friday." Arney chimes in, "Lucky you, Vanguard says it'll take a week."

The same mechanism that has caused small caps to fall flat (and continue falling flat this year) will cause large caps to fall hard when the time comes. And mutual fund cos will bankrupt themselves or exist in ignominy thanks to endless barrages of lawsuits.

I usually finish up my sermon by saying something like "The average shareholder wasn't spooked at all this past fall, and look what happened. The Dow fell 20% on mild jitters.

Mike
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