We were discussing voter registration yesterday. Barone has some stats that surprise even me. Does not bode well for Dems
California clues
By Michael Barone - US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT
Polls on the California recall have been all over the lot. The Los Angeles Times had Gray Davis being recalled by a narrow 50-to-45 margin. Survey USA, polling a few days later, had Davis being recalled by a 64-to-35 margin. One reason for the discrepancy is that no one knows who will turn out to vote. Political pollsters normally screen respondents by asking them whether they're registered to vote, whether they voted in previous elections, and how likely they are to vote in the next election. Normally such screens work pretty well.
But this is a different kind of election and Arnold Schwarzenegger is a different kind of candidate. In Minnesota in 1998, turnout was up 18 percent over 1994. The obvious reason was the independent candidacy of Jesse Ventura. In fast-growing counties in the outer Minneapolis-St. Paul media market, turnout was up 40 percent in many counties, and Ventura carried many of them with more than 50 percent of the vote in a three-way race. Minnesota has election day registration: Many people not previously registered to vote came to the polls and voted for Ventura. California does not have election day registration, but people can register up through September 22 for the October 7 election.
Schwarzenegger's strategists hope he will draw previous nonvoters to the polls. There are plenty already on the rolls: in November 2002, 7.5 million registered voters voted for governor, but 7.6 million registered voters did not vote for governor. Schwarzenegger will be helped if some of those 7.5 million?discouraged and disheartened Democrats?do not vote October 7, while some of those 7.6 million?young people disgusted with Sacramento politicians?do. But no one knows for sure whether those things will happen. Polls can't forecast turnout.
But the statistics showing new voter registrations can give us clues. After each general election, California purges its voter rolls of those who are known to have moved or died. So statewide registration declined from 15,303,000 in October 2002 to 14,866,000 in May 2003. In the two months from the end of May to July, registration rose 122,000, to 14,988,000. Those new registrants did not change the balance of registered Democrats and Republicans: It's still 45 percent Democratic and 35 percent Republican, rounded off to the nearest integer. But the party choice of new registrants was astonishing. Usually in California, new registrants choose parties by margins similar to those of already registered voters. Not this time. Of the 122,000 new registrants, only 9 percent registered as Democrats, 47 percent registered as Republicans, and 44 percent registered as Independents.
The outcome of the election is not likely to be decided by these 122,000 new voters. But coming forward to register, like coming forward to vote, is a volitional act that requires some action and is prompted by some motivation. The May to July period was when the recall became big news. On May 1, the circulators of recall petitions seemed unlikely to get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot; by July 31 it was official that there would be a recall election. The 47 percent to 9 percent Republican margin over Democrats among new registrants is powerful evidence that Democrats in California are demoralized and not highly motivated to vote?understandably, since most of them think the state is in terrible shape and their party is in power. In such a situation, you don't want to think about politics or vote. On the other hand, Republicans and Independents seem to have strong positive motivation. They are eager to vote Gray Davis out and ready, in many cases, to vote Arnold Schwarzenegger in.
These new registration figures don't prove Schwarzenegger will win or, for that matter, that Davis will be recalled. But they are evidence that points in that direction.
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