The following are 1997 predictions from this guy from O'Reilly. I don't know where is coming from on number 7. Is this guy smoking dope, Java has already grown to a broadly accepted technology.
11 Internet predictions for 1997
Posted by: siteadm
Date posted: Fri, 21 Feb 1997
Speaking at Fall Internet World, WebSite developer Robert Denny, whose software products have been used by
more than 100,000 people worldwide, made 11 predictions for 1997. Denny is well known as the developer of the
award-winning Web server WebSite and WebSite Professional. His servers (both WebSite and its shareware
predecessor, Win httpd) have been used by more than 100,000 people worldwide.
Robert Denny is gracious enough to join us in a discussion about his predictions for the Internet, its technologies & its community.
No. 1: The intranet will not "take off" in 1997. Its presence in corporate America will continue to increase at a gradual rate over the
next three to five years.
No. 2: There will be a big shakeout among Internet Service Providers. Those that will survive will fall into two categories: Either they
will be among the largest, or they will have value-added services that are reliable and cheap.
No. 3: Microsoft will make inroads into the browser market but won't knock Netscape out of the picture.
No. 4: There will not be a serious collapse of the Internet, but it may get more sluggish more often.
No. 5: Getting on the Internet will remain cheap, getting down to the bare-metal pricing -- and it will be flat-rate. But ...
No. 6: Microsoft will reveal plans to buck the Internet flat-rate trend with some form of usage-based pricing for its products. There will
be lots of controversy surrounding this.
No. 7: Java will fail to grow into a broadly accepted technology.
No. 8: Cable modems will not become popular, despite last year's. Their numbers will remain small as a percentage of total browsers.
No. 9: ActiveX in Web pages will be a lot less important than Microsoft would like.
No. 10: For newcomers to the 'net, live chat will become much more popular.
No. 11: The sleeper technology: in 1997, someone will really figure out MBONE (multicast backbone) and this terrific technology will
take off.
Now we want to hear from you. Is Denny on the mark, or do you have some better ideas? |
