I agreee somewhat -- immediately before 1997 QNTM was a mess. That was basically a different mgmt team and before the DEC acq. so my point is mainly to look at MB and evaluate him accordingly -- during *his* tenure.
Second, in the early 80s QNTM wa a major success story and so it's not as if QNTM was this disaster that just finally turned around. In fact, given that they were initially the Apple Company and had to remake their business lines, they have done an admirable job navigating tough straits and came out well.
That is not to say the latest upswing isn't nascent and fragile. The entire industry is fragile and hasn't proven itself since the consolidation and even after the last Dark Days. (when price competition last reared it's ugly head.)
Big picture, QNTM, however has done some very good things lately -- fixed up its balance sheet, bot a huge unit from DEC and paid down the debt, transformed a jewel in the rough (DLT) into a major cash cow, made some painful decisions to walk away from non-core competencies and/or difficult markets (Portable DDs and spinnin off much mfg to MKE). These are all paths that, at the time, did not seem clear choices. Many people beat up on them over these decisions.
I am very pos. on the co, but by no means do I want to be a cheerleader. They now face a huge test in managing expenses, production, and profitability. They also have to take advantage of the next 1 yr time window while DLT backlog remains strong and visibility appears to be good in that biz. That may change at any time and if they don't have their house in order, -- profitable in all units -- they will not be ready when DLT profit gains slow or stall.
Let's not assume they're out of the woods at all, but don't rewrite history either. The company has a history of boom AND bust and is trying desperately to show consistent growth. This latest stumble may mean we are in a bust mode. But then again it may not.
I believe Q4 will be a strong leading indicator for all of FY99 |
