Michael we all may have to go along..where it would lead us...Hey Clinton was elected twice...
Russia's ties with West likely
to worsen - IISS
05:01 a.m. May 03, 1999 Eastern
By David Ljunggren
LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) -
Russia's relations with the West are
sure to worsen in the coming year as
nationalists seek to make political
capital from the country's economic
crisis, a leading London-based
think-tank said on Tuesday.
The International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS) said Russia
had to balance its anger at NATO air
strikes against old ally Serbia with its
desire for more International
Monetary Fund (IMF) aid to help
stabilise its crumbling economy.
''This is a sure formula for a
recrudescence of nationalist fervour,''
the think-tank said in its Strategic
Survey for 1998/99.
''With an increase in nationalist
feeling, Russia's relations with the
West are sure to decay; that will
ensure that, for Russia, the coming
year is grimmer than the one just
past.''
This is especially true if Western
governments take a closer look at
the spiralling corruption inside Russia
and began questioning the worth of
large-scale aid, the survey said.
''The mismanagement, profligacy
and corruption demonstrated by the
Russian elite have exceeded anything
seen in southeast Asia. Unlike even
Suharto's Indonesia, the country has
defaulted on its debts, and risks
becoming a financial outcast,'' it said.
The good news for the West is that
the financial crisis -- which erupted
last August after Moscow devalued
the rouble by 30 percent -- has
reduced Russia as security threat,
according to the survey.
It said that, despite the likely
deterioration in ties, the poor state of
Russia's armed forces means
Moscow is unlikely to pose much of
a security threat to mainland Europe.
''Financial constraints have clearly
impeded the modernisation of
Russia's military capabilities,'' it said,
adding that with one exception
Moscow has not deployed a new
major weapons system for several
years.
''It is hard to see a Russia that
cannot impose its will on Chechnya
as a major threat to countries that lie
between its borders and NATO
states.
''The result is a real peace dividend
for Europeans and indeed for nearly
all of Russia's neighbours.''
The IISS said the West could also
take comfort from the fact that fears
of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation
seemed to have been exaggerated.
''Having allowed Russia to fail, it has
been a pleasant surprise, so far, that
there has been no sudden outflow of
'loose nukes' and 'loose scientists','' it
said.
''The biggest danger, however, is not
strategic but political -- that
economic hardship fosters the
popularity of xenophobic nationalist
politicians, prone to foreign policy
obstructionism. But even this
nightmare scenario seems remote.''
The IISS said President Boris
Yeltsin's efforts to create a stable
post-Soviet economy had clearly
failed and unless Moscow did more
to resolve the economic crisis, Russia
could slowly start falling apart.
''There are fears that the president's
failure to exercise his authority to
implement urgently needed economic
policies will further weaken Russia,
exacerbating the crisis and leading to
the federal government losing control
throughout Russia's 89 federal
entities,'' it said.
Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited |
